PENERAPAN METODE TREND EKSPONENSIAL UNTUK PERAMALAN JUMLAH TERSANGKA PENYALAHGUNAAN NARKOBA DI PROVINSI SULAWESI TENGAH

The problem of narcotics in Indonesia keep becoming a serious threat for the nation. The National Board Narcotics Agency of Central Sulawesi recorded the highest number of drug abuse cases occured in the province during 2018, and keep increasing in 3 years. As one of the prevention actions, forecasting method was needed to figure out the enhancement of drug abuse case in the future. This research applied exponential trend method in order to find out the enhancement of drug abuse cases in Central Sulawesi province. The result of this research showed that the highest forecast result was about 1058 people committed drug abuse. While the lowest was in January, in which about 867 people involved. Therefore, it can be concluded that the number of drug abuse suspects in 2020 increased significantly in each month with the accuracy level 0.42 or 42%. This showed that the significancy of forecasting curacy was, feasible.